Modeling Variability and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Wednesday, June 8, 2016 8:00:00 AM PDT - 9:30:00 AM PDT
Microbial Modelling and Risk Analysis Professional Development Group Presents: Modeling Variability and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Salmonella in Low Water Activity Foods and its Use in Decision Making. The presence, survival and heat resistance of Salmonella in low water activity foods is affected by many factors including environmental, processing and those inherent to the pathogen. The estimated risk of salmonellosis from consumption of these products is influenced by these factors as well as consumption patterns, production volume and population numbers. Variability in the value of each factor affects the risk of illness whereas uncertainty in the knowledge of each factor affects the risk estimate. The aim of this webinar is to provide an overview of strategies for incorporating variability and uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment models for Salmonella in low water activity foods and describe the utility of doing so for the decision maker. The webinar will conclude with a Q & A session.
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